1) Do the data show an increase, decrease, or stay (stay constant) in the trends?
2) Compare the data to the warning trend and indicator description.
3) Should the organization be concerned? Can it be corrected? How?
4) Your analysis then should explain why what occurred, occurred and its significance and implications.
Total Revenues per Household
Description: As a city’s population grows, it is anticipated that the needs for services will increase in a direct relationship. Therefore, the level of revenues per households should at least remain constant and at a minimum, equal to operating expenditures per household. If operating revenues per household decrease or become lower than operating expenditures per household, it may hamper a city’s ability to maintain the existing level of services unless new sources of revenues or ways of trimming expenses can be found.
Warning Trend: Decreasing total revenues per household
Property Tax Revenue
Description: Local property tax revenues are driven primarily by the value of residential and commercial property, with property tax bills determined by the local government’s assessed mill levy on the value of property. Property tax collections lag the real estate market, because local assessment practices take time to catch up with changes. As a result, current property tax bills and property tax collections typically reflect values of property from twelve to eighteen months prior.
A decline or diminished growth rate in taxable value may result from a number of causes such as an overall decline in property values, the transfer of taxable property to organizations that are exempt, or a decline in new development.
Warning Trend: Declining or negative growth in property tax revenues
Sales Tax Revenue as Percentage of Total Revenues
Description: Changes in economic conditions are also evident in terms of changes in sales tax collections. When consumer confidence is high, people spend more on goods and services, and city governments benefit through increases in sales tax collections. Prior to the recession, consumer spending was also fueled by a strong real estate market that provided additional wealth to homeowners. The struggling economy and the declining real estate market have reduced consumer confidence, resulting in less consumer spending and declining sales tax revenues.
Warning Trend: Declining or negative growth in sales & use tax revenues
Sales Tax Revenues as a Percentage of Total Revenues
INSTRUCTIONS
For each chart, write a 1-page analysis that should focus on the patterns and their implications as they relate to the warning trends and indicator description. And it should pull it all together and focus on the overall fiscal condition that the trends indicate.
For example:
Warning Trend: Decreasing Total Revenues per Household
The research question is, Is the Total Revenues per Household decreasing?
1) Do the data show an increase, decrease, or stay (stay constant) in the trends?
2) Compare the data to the warning trend and indicator description.
3) Should the organization be concerned? Can it be corrected? How?
4) Your analysis then should explain why what occurred, occurred and its significance and implications.
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