## 17 Jan Probability Probability Report The probability of an event can be determined in theory as well as in practice. In this projec

**Assignment Instructions**

**M7 Assignment: Probability**

Probability Report

The probability of an event can be determined in theory as well as in practice. In this project, you will use the formulas and methods in your readings to determine the theoretical probability. You will then conduct an experiment to see if the outcomes match what you expect to find with the theoretical probability.

In this project you will:

- be able to use the counting principle to determine the number of possible outcomes
- be able to calculate and interpret probability

To complete this project you will:

- Complete the Probability Worksheet to guide you in developing your budget. Be sure to show all work!
- Complete a 2 page, double spaced, APA formatted report. In the report you need to present your findings and explain your conclusions on experimental and theoretical probability. Thoughts to include in the report include: How are theoretical and experimental probability different? Why might the theoretical probability not match the experimental probability?
- Be sure to cite your sources for the questions that require sources.

**Directions: **Complete the financial report worksheet to help you with your calculations to create the APA report. 1. Choose one of the 3 scenarios:

a. Probability of obtaining heads on a coin toss

b. Probability of rolling a 2 on a 6 sided die.

c. Probability of drawing a Jack from a deck of cards.

2. Calculate the **theoretical probability** for your chosen scenario. Show all work! Remember probability is the number of ways you can achieve the desired outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes. Then calculate the **theoretical probability **of your chosen scenario NOT happening. Ex: What is the probability of “Not Heads”? What is the probability of “Not rolling a 2”, etc. 3. Complete 100 trials for your chosen scenario. Ex: Flip a coin 100 times and record the outcome, roll a di 100 times and record the outcome, choose a card from a deck (with replacement) 100 times. 4. Create a table in Microsoft word here and record your data.

5. Using the table you created in number 4, what is the **experimental probability** for your chosen scenario? 6. Using the table you created in number 4, what is the **experimental probability** for NOT achieving your chosen scenario? Ex: What is the probability of “Not Heads”? What is the probability of “Not rolling a 2”, etc.

7. Does your theoretical probability match your experimental probability?

8. Complete research on WHY your probabilities might not match or why they might match. *Be sure to cite your source*

9. Using the concepts learned this week, what do you think would happen if you did 1,000 trials? *Be sure to cite your reading*

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