21 Jan Sukkur Iba University Interest Rates and Inflation Economics Worksheet
Sukkur Iba University Interest Rates and Inflation Economics Worksheet
I need to run and analyze a few regressions as part of a school project.
in essence, The regression will need to check how the s&p index is affected by changes in a few variables related to the central bank interest rates and inflation. And then compare it to the effect on the banking sector only.
The main research question is if the US banking stocks (KBW index) are outperforming the S&P index in times of rising central banks’ interest rates. there were 2 periods in the past similar to these days when interest rates went up and we want to examine those, 1998-2001 (DotCom bubble) and 2005-2009 (SubPrime crisis). In those periods we want to run a regression to see the effect of a rise in interest rates by using US 10yr treasury yield, 2yr treasury yield, and breakeven inflation as another possible explanatory variable of KBW index and S&P index changes, each one separately. I believe that we will find that banks stock do indeed outperform the S&P index in times of rising rates.
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